Monday, October 5, 2009

amazin', amazin', amazin...

i have to be honest, i got a little choked up yesterday. In between the cautious optimism of the preseason opener of the Knicks and the disappointing loss by the Jets, i made a point to catch the end of last Mets broadcast of the year...

i'm not quite sure why i was welled up with emotion. Maybe it was pent up frustration of a demoralizing season, or the pure joy of Nelson Figueroa's expression after throwing a four-hit complete game shut out, or the sight of a war-torn David Wright who is now, finally, able to rest his head after having a front row seat to this 162 game debacle...

i'm always a little sad when the end comes for my favorite teams. The Mets are the original in that capacity. My mom was swept up in the Amazin' Mets back in 1969, I came along four years later, and was given no choice. I wouldn't have it any other way. There is a certain pride in being a Met fan, stuck between a rock (the Yankees) and a hard place (NY's baseball history—the Brooklyn Bums and the New York baseball Giants), an integrous undertaking that Yankee fans couldn't possibly understand...

this season was one of what ifs. What if the core of this team had remained healthy? What if Omar had signed Derek Lowe instead of Oliver Perez? What if the Wilpons hadn't given their trust to a reckless investor?
Things would be different if only the first question is broached. You can't tell me that a healthy Reyes, Delgado, and Beltran wouldn't have added 15 wins to the the record this year. Judge Roughneck will attempt through some statistical equation that the team wouldn't have been any better. But numbers don't tell the tale. A healthy Delgado and the Pepsi Porch=30-35 homeruns. Beltran is the best defensive centerfielder in the game, not to mention he was molten hot when he packed it in, and would have added 20-25 homeruns to a powerless lineup. Reyes is one of the greatest weapons in baseball, and as much I have grown tired of his antics and lack of hustle and/or control on the basepaths, having him at the top of line up and at shortstop for 155 games would have bolstered the middle of the infield, given Luis Castillo some much needed rest and made Alex Cora a more effective player, and a healthier one—remember he went down too.
And what of the intangibles? For the record an intangible is a factor that cannot be measured. A debate that rages between the Judge and i is the existence of intangibles. Judge Roughneck is a statistical wonder, i will give him that, but his reliance on numbers prevents him from thinking outside of the box in these matters. If the offense is more potent does Mike Pelfrey's psyche problems take center stage, or is he allowed to relax knowing his offense can give him 5 runs a game? With more rest does Castillo lose concentration and drop a easy fly ball versus the Yankees? Is David Wright afforded the opportunity to relax and not press as much as he felt he had to in the face of being the only offensive threat? Does Daniel Murphy thrive batting behind Delgado, sixth in the lineup instead of being slotted cleanup? Was there, overall, too much pressure on this team to perform withou its key players? There are no yes or no answers to these questions, just things to consider...

there are the Philadelphia Phillies. Consider this, Cole Hamels had an awful year. The World Series MVP and Cy Young Runner up won only 10 games this year. Brad Lidge was approaching double digit blown saves when when Phillies Manager Charlie Manual came to his senses and replaced him. Jimmy Rollins, the Phils erstwhile leader, had a dreadful year, probably a victim of the World Baseball classic. In fact, without an outrageous effort from Chase Utley and the emergence of Jayson Werth, the Atlanta Braves could have very well taken the NL East flag...

and what of the World Baseball Classic? The Mets had one of the highest contingent of players involved in this half-wit experiment. Let's see—Reyes-hurt, Beltran-hurt, Delgado-hurt, Putz-hurt, Wright-exhausted, Perez-plum lost his mind, and Santana, the Mets held him out and he still ended up going down...

the WBC, along with interleague play, should go the way of the dodo. Does anyone else feel its unfair that the Mets should be forced to play the Yankees twice a year, every year while the St. Louis Cardinals play the Kansas City Royals, twice, every year?...

what's done is done. The Mets finished the season at 70-92. At the beginning of the year i would have put them at 92-95 wins with a chance at 100—i got 70. OK, what now...

If i were a Wilpon...

first, i would swallow my pride and start schilling for a minority owner, someone who is willing to take a back seat on a good investment, because a baseball team with its own television station and brand new state of the art ballpark is a good investment. This would allow the franchise to continue to compete with other large market-high revenue teams for the best free agent talent...

second, i would fire Omar Minaya and consider a manager change. Omar is the architect of this organizational mess and he must go. My hire would be a keen baseball mind that has the acumen to fit like pieces together, snubs his nose at slotting reccomendations in the amatuer draft and has a real plan for rebuiliding the minor league system. He or she, would be responsible for staffing the organization with capable persons willing to put the organization ahead of their personal goals. As for Jerry Manuel, its not that simple. If i were to fire Manuel who do i hire as his replacement? In my mind there only two men who are equipped for this job in its current state and that is either Bobby Valentine or Wally Backman. Valentine is a long shot for financial reasons coupled with the Wilpons disdain for him. The thing is, at the end of the day it was ESPN analyst and then GM Steve Phillips who coordinated Valentine's demise here—maybe the bridge isn't burned. If Valentine wants to GM or at least have some influence in player management as well that would be fine, as long as he filled the role as i described above. As for Backman, he has been in exile after a poorly timed report about his infidelity that cost him a job with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Its time to bring him in from the cold. He is exactly the type of attitude we need in the clubhouse, ad he would come on the cheap...

third, by removing Razor Shines as the third base coach the organization has made the first good move since opening the beer island in centerfield. Shines was a disaster in all facets of his job description. He failed to teach anyone how to run the bases like a major league baseball player and couldn't Daniel Murphy get a clue in left—although, i'm not sure i can blame them. Luis Alicea is also gone. Sandy Alomar Sr will be reassigned as Jr will stay on. i like Sandy Jr and will touch on this later. Howard Johnson and Dan Warthen stay, which is up for debate. Its hard to blame HoJo for much, this team was in the top tier offensively in the national league, hard to fire a guy after that. Warthen is another matter. He lost Pelfrey this year—that's on him, but Perez, however, is not. Its hard to blame a guy who didn't have a real chance to have John Maine in his rotation, and had to play musical chairs with his rotation. His bullpen had holes and in the end he was dealing with issues between Parnell, Green and any number of call-ups that littered his bullpen. Francisco Rodriguez had a K-Rod year, lots of guys on base but mainly reliable. Pedro Feliciano was the only impeccable member of the pen, even when Manuel used him wrong. Obviously, with a new GM and/or manager I would expect some turnover in this spot, but i would give Warthen the benefit of the doubt—for now. For the rest of the staff...

i would rehire Mookie Wilson. His baserunning acumen is unmatched. I don't need him to coach at the major league level. He would be a roving instructer who went from level to level teaching kids how to run the bases, he would start in spring training teaching the supposed major leaguers like Reyes and Angel Pagan, who has a mountain of talent in a pea-sized baseball brain, how to correctly run the bases. As owner of SNY i would would adjust the job descriptions of both Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez. i would keep them teamed with the venerable Gary Cohen for 162 regular season games but during the spring i would want Darling and Hernandez at the facility teaches these guys baseball and how to win. Along with being a pleasing broadcast and the thing i will miss the most this season, these two guys know baseball and they know New york and they know Mets baseball. They are a font of knowledge for veterans and rookies alike...

fourthly (is that even english?)—roster changes. What is it that the Mets need? A number two starter, a left fielder with some pop or gap ability, a first basemen with pop or gap ability and a catcher. That's it. The rotation will have Santana and Pelfrey. Maine, if he remains healthy will be in there as well. Perez? I would spend all spring converting him to a relief role and have him start his season in Triple A. The fifth spot as always belongs to any number of folks that will be hustled in and out throughout the year. I would leave Jonathan Niese in Triple A. He is still awfully young and we would be doing more harm than good in regards to him if we put him in the big club's rotation. So where is the #2 starter come from? Let's start in the trade market. Roy Halladay will be had at a discount and the Yankees (tied up with Sabathia and Burnett) won't be in the race for him. The Red Sox will probably pass as well, especially if the Yankees are out. Halladay can be had for a discount because the Blue Jays have to trade him after their failure to do so in-season. It has become even easier since JP Riccardi was fired. A new GM, while wanting to make his bones with a trade like this will crumble under its weight. If Halladay will want a new contract, sure, but that's why you bring in the minority ownership with the stream of cash. Santana and Halladay would all but equal a pennant. If you can't obtain Halladay the only other option for a #2 type talent would be John Lackey. His workmanlike style would be a nice fit backing up Santana in the rotation and give Pelfrey the room to develop under less stress. Jason Marquis is an option if all else fails. He is a hometown boy and would fit well in the park, but he's not a legitimate #2 guy...

for years the Tampa Bay Rays and Mets have toyed with exchanging players for Carl Crawford. Crawford would be the absolute perfect fit for the Mets in left field. With his combination of speed and contact he is an ideal #2, 3 or 5 hitter. Depending on what you do with Castillo—i think we could find a taker for him after the season he had, even with the two year contract albatross around his neck. A deal for Crawford could only be done under the circumstances that we couldn't get Halladay. But a deal could certainly be struck. The Rays, with BJ Upton, Evan Longoria and Price need to keep their coffers light...

as for Castillo, if we can trade we should. For a bag of peanuts! He had a fine season but he has lost his range, has no rbi power and looks as though he does more harm than good in the clubhouse. By shedding him you open the door to signing Orlando Hudson, whom, for whatever reason, has a unscratchable itch to play for the Mets—not for New York, for the Mets, as odd as that sounds. Hudson restores the range at second, and gives us surer hands than Castillo. The speed is there but most importantly he brings rbis to the mix. Even if i couldn't lose Castillo i would consider signing Hudson...

first base belongs to Murphy. He played well enough there to give him a year, there is really no one to sign for the spot and Ike Davis is not ready. Murphy showed a late penchant for finding the Pepsi Porch. Look out in a lineup where he hits sixth behind Crawford and in front of Francuoer. Yes, Frenchy earned a spot by showing power, a good glove and a smile. Something that was missing this year. He brings positivity with him. The clubhouse needs players like this...

finally at catcher there is a bit of a conundrum. It would be reasonable to send Josh Thole to Triple A to start the season, but then you have to sign a catcher for a year, a useless expense. Santos was a revelation at the position this year, but pragmatism reminds us that he is nothing more than a capable backup/platoon guy. Better tan Ramon Castro could ever be with us, seeing as he stays healthy. So, why not use Thole as the other half of that platoon. If he is your catcher of the future, shouldn't our pitchers get to know him, create a rapport that they can maintain down the road? Thole and Santos come cheap, and yes they both need work on receiving behind the plate. That is why you hold onto a guy like Sandy Alomar Jr. Jr brings years of experience to the position and could work with these two young catchers to improve their skills behind the plate. Time has told us not to judge a player on his performance in March or September. Fine. But Thole was very good, and what's your alternative...

imagine a lineup of Reyes, Hudson, Beltran, Wright, Crawford, Murphy, Franceuor and Thole. That's not bad with Santana and either Halladay or Lackey behind him. World Champs? Probably not, but most definitely a contender...

the epilogue is that i'm not a Wilpon and few if any of these suggestions will be considered let alone carried out. Apparently the levee must break before we can rebuild it. Sure worked for New Orleans. But I will remain a Met fan and will be one until the day my carcass is aflame floating on the high seas. Its what i am and the above treatise is nothing more than one man's opinion on how to rebuild a franchise. Hey, if the Jets can do it by simply hiring a loud mouth and a slick looking quarterback then why can't the Mets...

today baseball becomes someone else's game for the next month and a half, and my interest will be passing. But fear not for i...

the Rangers new look rushing attack will be exciting to watch if nothing else...

the Knicks could make things interesting in March if Gallinari really shoots like he has been, Wilson Chandler can take the reins and make himself a 20 point a game scorer and if guys like Toney Douglas and Larry Hughes can contribute defensively on a consistent level. Al Harrington looks ready to head this ship, David Lee is a solid and of course there's my boy— 'shake and bake' Nate Robinson...

i see yesterdays loss by the Jets to be more of an aberration than harbinger...

and i'll be rooting for Top Step Tulo and the Colorado Rockies...


1 comment:

Jack Flynn said...

Took me a few days to get time to respond.

You can't tell me that a healthy Reyes, Delgado, and Beltran wouldn't have added 15 wins to the the record this year. Judge Roughneck will attempt through some statistical equation that the team wouldn't have been any better.

I'm the guy who predicted 85 to 88 wins this season, remember? Here's my attempt at a statistical answer to your postulation:

1) Assume that Reyes, Beltran and Delgado are healthy all season AND are able to repeat their 2008 performance. Unlikely - especially in the case of Delgado - but I'll go along for your argument's sake.

2) Go to Fangraphs, and look at all three players' WAR (wins above replacement). Subtract 2009 totals from 2008 totals and add up the difference in the three seasons. That's approximately how many wins the Mets missed out on.

Reyes: 5.9 - 0.7 = 5.2
Beltran: 6.7 - 2.9 = 3.8
Delgado: 2.9 - 0.8 = 2.1

3) 5.2 + 3.8 + 2.1 = 11.1 wins above replacement lost

I think it's safe to say that the Mets coughed up 10 wins just by losing those three guys for the amount of time they did. Throw in the other injuries, and you get a 70-win team.

Judge Roughneck is a statistical wonder, i will give him that, but his reliance on numbers prevents him from thinking outside of the box in these matters.

Just the opposite. It's my reliance on numbers that allows me to think outside the box. It's why I understand that Luis Castillo is a #8 hitter and not a #2 hitter. It's why I understood that Bobby Parnell sucked the entire season, even when he was showing off a tidy reliever ERA. Numbers do not confine thought - numbers explain what makes thought right and wrong.

and what of the World Baseball Classic? The Mets had one of the highest contingent of players involved in this half-wit experiment. Let's see—Reyes-hurt, Beltran-hurt, Delgado-hurt, Putz-hurt, Wright-exhausted, Perez-plum lost his mind, and Santana, the Mets held him out and he still ended up going down...

I love the WBC. I would love it even more if national teams started their training camps on October 1 and the Classic began on the second week of November. Give me three weeks of games, with the championship rounds over Thanksgiving weekend. It's just so stupid to play those games in Spring Training, when players are working into shape, instead of in November, when they've been playing for seven months. Can't use the tired excuse with my plan - the guys on non-playoff teams get over a month to rest and work out before gameplay begins.

Does anyone else feel its unfair that the Mets should be forced to play the Yankees twice a year, every year while the St. Louis Cardinals play the Kansas City Royals, twice, every year?...

Yes. Kill interleague play entirely, or play each division once every three years and kill the "rivalry series."